Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1524 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1524 DCA 06:55 → TPA 09:24 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 544 DCA 18:51 → TPA 21:18 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1524 Southwest	DCA 06:55	TPA 09:24	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1972 American	DCA 08:43	TPA 11:18	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3126 American	DCA 10:20	TPA 12:54	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 1150 Southwest	DCA 14:41	TPA 17:10	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	DCA 15:47	TPA 18:23	27%	9%	0.9%	58%
AA 544 American Flight history →	DCA 18:51	TPA 21:18	30%	10%	0.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON