tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5497 at 14:07, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5497 PSA DCA 14:07 TUL 16:13 18% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 37m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 59m Chicago ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest 5h 33m 95% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → TUL 11:58AA 2352 8h 03m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 12:28 → TUL 14:00AA 2657 6h 30m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 6h 37m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 7h 04m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:31 → TUL 16:12UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 52m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON