Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 4400 at 10:59, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4400 Republic	DCA 10:59	TVC 13:08	14%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m	96%	82%
American Details →	DCA 07:54 → ORD 09:14AA 2633	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 11:57 → TVC 14:10AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	5h 55m	96%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON