Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5109 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day OH 5109 DCA 08:57 → TYS 10:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5224 DCA 15:52 → TYS 17:28 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5109 PSA	DCA 08:57	TYS 10:55	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5484 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:46	TYS 21:33	23%	9%	0.7%	59%
OH 5224 PSA	DCA 15:52	TYS 17:28	30%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON