tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 4110 at 10:28, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4110 Envoy DCA 10:28 VPS 11:46 15% 3% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 29m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170 6h 45m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 5h 49m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 7h 33m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 8h 44m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 7h 39m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:06 → VPS 21:11AA 1201 8h 27m 98% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON