Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3452 at 19:57, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3452 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 19:57	XNA 21:51	18%	7%	1.5%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → XNA 14:17AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 18m	99%	88%
American Details →	DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	8h 28m	99%	86%
United Details →	DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697	3h 51m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 55m	99%	85%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 22m Houston	IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 12m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	6h 38m	98%	83%
American Details →	DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:38AA 1521	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 08:42 → XNA 09:52AA 5327 · flown by PSA	4h 44m	94%	83%
American Details →	DCA 07:54 → ORD 09:14AA 2633	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → XNA 13:26AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 32m	100%	82%
American Details →	DCA 04:55 → DFW 07:06AA 2007	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → XNA 11:05AA 2025	7h 10m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:00 → ORD 18:11AA 1189	54m Chicago	ORD 19:05 → XNA 21:01AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	5h 01m	63%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON