Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 865 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 865 DEN 08:36 → ABQ 10:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5088 DEN 16:36 → ABQ 18:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 865 Southwest	DEN 08:36	ABQ 10:04	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1733 United	DEN 08:23	ABQ 09:59	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1527 Southwest	DEN 11:56	ABQ 13:23	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 476 United	DEN 11:15	ABQ 12:46	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4728 SkyWest	DEN 15:59	ABQ 17:45	13%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1594 United	DEN 13:41	ABQ 15:10	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 160 Southwest	DEN 15:36	ABQ 17:04	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1966 Southwest	DEN 18:11	ABQ 19:37	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 5088 Southwest	DEN 16:36	ABQ 18:02	19%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON