Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 501 at 11:23, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 501 SkyWest	DEN 11:23	ACV 13:12	17%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Arcata/Eureka is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 10:34 → ACV 12:34UA 2628	7h 30m	100%	74%
United Details →	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	2h 29m San Francisco	SFO 13:54 → ACV 15:14UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	99%	70%
United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	3h 22m San Francisco	SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	7h 27m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	50m San Francisco	SFO 13:54 → ACV 15:14UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	68%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON