Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5233 at 14:10, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5233 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:10	AMA 16:43	15%	5%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DEN 05:56 → DAL 08:58WN 1388	3h 49m Dallas	DAL 12:47 → AMA 14:13WN 1897	7h 17m	100%	88%
American Details →	DEN 06:20 → DFW 09:27AA 3285	3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:09 → AMA 14:28AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	99%	87%
American Details →	DEN 07:36 → DFW 10:44AA 852	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:24 → AMA 15:43AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	97%	84%
United Details →	DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320	58m Houston	IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 21m	96%	83%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:20 → AMA 18:39AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	96%	83%
United Details →	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	3h 30m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 00m	99%	82%
United Details →	DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720	1h 10m Houston	IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 39m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON