tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 13:03, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 13:03 → SEA 15:05DL 1358 2h 26m Seattle SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367 9h 23m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731 2h 09m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 8h 47m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:06AS 682 2h 53m Seattle SEA 16:59 → ANC 19:38AS 225 9h 21m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 2h 39m Seattle SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440 9h 28m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 2h 50m Chicago ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461 12h 13m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:40 → ORD 14:17AA 2559 2h 48m Chicago ORD 17:05 → ANC 21:06AA 375 12h 26m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399 12h 23m 96% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 57m Seattle SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27AS 83 7h 47m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON