Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5444 DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5769 DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5444 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ASE 08:46	7%	3%	1.7%	86%
UA 5771 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	ASE 14:44	14%	6%	2.0%	73%
UA 5775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:25	ASE 18:29	14%	5%	2.1%	72%
UA 5782 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:50	ASE 10:51	15%	4%	1.7%	80%
UA 5697 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:22	ASE 17:26	15%	5%	2.5%	63%
UA 5769 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:18	ASE 12:26	15%	6%	1.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON