Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 341 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 341 DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4297 DEN 16:16 → ATL 21:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 341 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:45	ATL 10:44	3%	1%	0.5%	94%
DL 431 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:15	ATL 12:11	5%	2%	0.5%	93%
WN 2713 Southwest	DEN 08:31	ATL 13:40	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:07	ATL 17:10	9%	4%	0.5%	86%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	DEN 10:52	ATL 15:52	9%	3%	0.5%	80%
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:10	ATL 19:16	9%	4%	0.5%	83%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:10	ATL 20:22	11%	4%	0.5%	85%
UA 2806 United	DEN 10:15	ATL 15:30	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 840 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:35	ATL 21:49	13%	5%	0.5%	82%
UA 1671 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	ATL 18:30	15%	5%	0.5%	79%
UA 248 United	DEN 17:55	ATL 23:11	16%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 3600 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:58	ATL 15:08	18%	6%	0.7%	75%
WN 4297 Southwest	DEN 16:16	ATL 21:25	25%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON