Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2089 at 17:46, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2089 United	DEN 17:46	ATW 21:12	18%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	7h 22m	97%	78%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:43UA 2430	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	6h 09m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54DL 1745	2h 04m Detroit	DTW 12:58 → ATW 13:25DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	5h 38m	91%	77%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → ATW 14:05UA 4475 · flown by GoJet	7h 05m	99%	71%
United Details →	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 18:17 → ATW 19:32UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	DEN 16:08 → MSP 19:15DL 2271	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor	5h 50m	99%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON