Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4833 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4833 DEN 05:16 → AUS 08:32 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1816 DEN 16:11 → AUS 19:27 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4833 Southwest	DEN 05:16	AUS 08:32	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1536 Southwest	DEN 07:51	AUS 11:08	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 456 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	AUS 11:15	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 970 Southwest	DEN 10:46	AUS 14:03	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1026 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	AUS 13:20	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:30	AUS 12:45	13%	5%	0.5%	85%
WN 1538 Southwest	DEN 11:56	AUS 15:14	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1496 Southwest	DEN 14:14	AUS 17:31	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2270 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	AUS 16:58	17%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 1899 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	AUS 18:48	18%	8%	0.6%	78%
UA 1942 United Flight history →	DEN 18:39	AUS 21:57	19%	8%	0.6%	75%
WN 1764 Southwest	DEN 16:49	AUS 20:07	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 1816 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:11	AUS 19:27	21%	8%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON