Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1992 at 09:49, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1992 United	DEN 09:49	AVL 14:56	13%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	5h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	5h 25m	98%	84%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	1h 09m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	5h 38m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41DL 3071	7h 49m	100%	81%
American Details →	DEN 06:54 → PHL 12:41AA 516	3h 47m Philadelphia	PHL 16:28 → AVL 18:36AA 6034 · flown by Piedmont	9h 42m	98%	67%
American Details →	DEN 06:20 → DFW 09:27AA 3285	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:36 → AVL 16:05AA 569	7h 45m	99%	66%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → EWR 11:49UA 2345	2h 00m Newark	EWR 13:49 → AVL 15:54UA 4430 · flown by GoJet	7h 54m	99%	65%
American Details →	DEN 12:58 → PHL 18:43AA 2491	3h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 21:50 → AVL 23:58AA 6093 · flown by Piedmont	9h 00m	99%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON