Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1543 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1543 DEN 06:01 → BNA 09:36 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1547 DEN 15:58 → BNA 19:36 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1543 Southwest	DEN 06:01	BNA 09:36	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1544 Southwest	DEN 07:41	BNA 11:16	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 605 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	BNA 11:42	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 355 United Flight history →	DEN 09:51	BNA 13:41	10%	3%	0.5%	83%
WN 1545 Southwest	DEN 10:24	BNA 14:00	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1109 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	BNA 17:34	15%	5%	0.5%	72%
WN 2286 Southwest	DEN 12:59	BNA 16:35	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1300 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	BNA 21:13	17%	7%	0.6%	74%
F9 1402 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:35	BNA 14:22	18%	5%	0.7%	81%
WN 1547 Southwest	DEN 15:58	BNA 19:36	21%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON