Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2107 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2107 DEN 08:51 → BOI 10:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2602 DEN 15:55 → BOI 17:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2107 Southwest	DEN 08:51	BOI 10:50	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 255 United	DEN 07:34	BOI 09:36	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2255 United Flight history →	DEN 11:36	BOI 13:35	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
WN 1551 Southwest	DEN 13:16	BOI 15:15	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2602 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	BOI 17:56	16%	5%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON