Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2656 at 00:08 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 2656 DEN 00:08 → BOS 05:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1553 DEN 11:01 → BOS 16:57 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2656 United Flight history →	DEN 00:08	BOS 05:57	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 558 United Flight history →	DEN 07:45	BOS 13:49	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1232 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	BOS 15:44	16%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 597 United Flight history →	DEN 14:06	BOS 20:10	20%	12%	0.6%	71%
UA 1356 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	BOS 23:44	21%	9%	0.6%	73%
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:33	BOS 17:35	23%	8%	0.6%	75%
UA 1912 United	DEN 15:45	BOS 21:43	25%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 4524 Southwest	DEN 17:16	BOS 23:13	29%	9%	0.6%	no record
B6 394 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 12:40	BOS 18:41	30%	17%	0.7%	68%
WN 1553 Southwest	DEN 11:01	BOS 16:57	32%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	5h 51m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON