tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 731 United DEN 17:33 BUF 22:45 21% 9% 0.6% no record
WN 4892 Southwest DEN 13:51 BUF 18:59 24% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 8h 18m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DEN 08:47 → MSP 11:44DL 2877 3h 38m Minneapolis MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749 7h 37m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → ORD 11:43UA 2430 2h 16m Chicago ORD 13:59 → BUF 16:40UA 580 6h 40m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → DEN 13:18 → CLT 18:36AA 1662 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 7h 33m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573 1h 45m Charlotte CLT 13:49 → BUF 15:43AA 2442 7h 02m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:58 → PHL 18:43AA 2491 3h 37m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont 8h 55m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279 1h 18m Dulles IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 12m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27DL 336 1h 02m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 6h 34m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 55m Chicago ORD 18:00 → BUF 20:41UA 1335 5h 16m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON