Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1557 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1557 DEN 08:31 → BUR 10:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1558 DEN 15:39 → BUR 17:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1557 Southwest	DEN 08:31	BUR 10:04	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 2154 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	BUR 12:48	16%	6%	0.6%	85%
WN 2620 Southwest	DEN 11:42	BUR 13:14	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1558 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:39	BUR 17:11	21%	6%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON