Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1560 at 04:53 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1560 DEN 04:53 → BWI 10:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1143 DEN 15:27 → BWI 21:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1560 Southwest	DEN 04:53	BWI 10:24	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1509 Southwest	DEN 09:51	BWI 15:23	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	DEN 09:46	BWI 15:17	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 1563 Southwest	DEN 12:20	BWI 17:53	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2843 United	DEN 18:08	BWI 23:38	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1143 Southwest	DEN 15:27	BWI 21:01	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON