Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2178 DEN 08:41 → BZN 10:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4530 DEN 15:56 → BZN 17:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2178 Southwest	DEN 08:41	BZN 10:27	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4754 SkyWest	DEN 07:54	BZN 09:45	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 741 United Flight history →	DEN 11:55	BZN 13:55	8%	4%	0.5%	82%
UA 513 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	BZN 15:33	11%	4%	0.5%	85%
WN 4530 Southwest	DEN 15:56	BZN 17:42	12%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON