Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 619 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 619 DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 4638 DEN 15:39 → CLE 20:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 619 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CLE 14:36	12%	3%	0.6%	97%
WN 1569 Southwest	DEN 10:36	CLE 15:36	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2476 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	CLE 18:53	16%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1790 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CLE 22:41	23%	7%	0.6%	75%
F9 4638 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:39	CLE 20:49	24%	8%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON