Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 480 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 480 DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4482 DEN 13:31 → CMH 18:21 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 480 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	CMH 14:28	10%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 1571 Southwest	DEN 10:31	CMH 15:21	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1843 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CMH 22:37	18%	6%	0.5%	77%
WN 4482 Southwest	DEN 13:31	CMH 18:21	21%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON