Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4386 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4386 DEN 08:51 → COS 09:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5861 DEN 17:55 → COS 18:54 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4386 Southwest	DEN 08:51	COS 09:40	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6098 SkyWest	DEN 07:53	COS 09:05	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5246 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	COS 08:41	10%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 5306 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:45	COS 10:46	13%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 738 United	DEN 11:33	COS 12:25	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	COS 14:27	19%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 5308 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:55	COS 17:52	19%	8%	0.7%	66%
UA 5546 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	COS 16:32	19%	7%	0.6%	81%
WN 3896 Southwest	DEN 13:16	COS 14:05	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 5861 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	COS 18:54	23%	8%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON