Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1978 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1978 DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1297 DEN 14:06 → CVG 18:48 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1978 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CVG 14:27	11%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1615 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CVG 22:28	18%	5%	0.6%	76%
F9 3286 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:22	CVG 16:12	18%	5%	0.8%	82%
WN 1297 Southwest	DEN 14:06	CVG 18:48	21%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON