Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2635 at 18:13, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2635 United	DEN 18:13	DAY 23:08	17%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763	7h 19m	99%	88%
American Details →	DEN 11:09 → CLT 16:32AA 3299	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA	7h 28m	100%	79%
United Details →	DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 12:44 → DAY 14:18UA 4241 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 05m	96%	79%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 15:59 → DAY 17:28AA 5321 · flown by PSA	8h 47m	99%	79%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101	3h 49m Dulles	IAD 17:15 → DAY 19:01UA 4274 · flown by CommuteAir	9h 01m	100%	78%
American Details →	DEN 07:36 → DFW 10:44AA 852	3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:09 → DAY 17:34AA 5517 · flown by PSA	7h 58m	96%	75%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:16 → DAY 20:48AA 5609 · flown by PSA	8h 10m	96%	75%
American Details →	DEN 12:58 → PHL 18:43AA 2491	56m Philadelphia	PHL 19:39 → DAY 21:21AA 5064 · flown by PSA	6h 23m	78%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	46m Chicago	ORD 17:51 → DAY 20:22UA 4484 · flown by GoJet	4h 57m	65%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON