Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2612 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2612 DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1322 DEN 18:10 → DFW 21:18 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2612 American Flight history →	DEN 05:00	DFW 08:05	5%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 3285 American Flight history →	DEN 06:20	DFW 09:27	6%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DEN 07:32	DFW 10:39	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
F9 2550 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:26	DFW 09:36	9%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 1350 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	DFW 12:39	11%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 852 American Flight history →	DEN 07:36	DFW 10:44	11%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DEN 09:04	DFW 12:07	15%	5%	0.8%	82%
F9 3366 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:09	DFW 13:19	16%	5%	0.7%	78%
UA 578 United Flight history →	DEN 13:45	DFW 16:51	17%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 2230 United	DEN 15:45	DFW 18:51	18%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DEN 10:38	DFW 13:40	18%	6%	0.8%	69%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DEN 12:39	DFW 15:47	19%	8%	0.8%	64%
UA 1565 United Flight history →	DEN 18:53	DFW 21:59	21%	8%	0.6%	69%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DEN 15:11	DFW 18:21	23%	10%	0.8%	69%
F9 4464 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:12	DFW 19:23	24%	8%	0.7%	72%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DEN 16:23	DFW 19:34	25%	10%	0.8%	61%
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DEN 18:10	DFW 21:18	28%	10%	1.0%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON