Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5361 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day OO 5361 DEN 07:55 → DSM 10:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 549 DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5361 SkyWest	DEN 07:55	DSM 10:49	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	DEN 09:56	DSM 12:54	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 3984 Southwest	DEN 10:41	DSM 13:30	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 1678 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:54	DSM 10:52	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
UA 1311 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	DSM 16:11	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 549 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	DSM 20:30	19%	8%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON