Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1745 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1745 DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1220 DEN 17:47 → DTW 22:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1745 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:05	DTW 10:54	4%	2%	0.4%	90%
DL 1096 Delta Flight history →	DEN 00:59	DTW 05:48	5%	2%	0.4%	91%
UA 1915 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	DTW 14:27	10%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 1113 Delta	DEN 10:59	DTW 15:46	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:59	DTW 19:49	12%	4%	0.4%	83%
F9 3566 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:27	DTW 15:23	13%	4%	0.7%	91%
WN 1582 Southwest	DEN 11:01	DTW 15:48	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1220 United Flight history →	DEN 17:47	DTW 22:43	19%	6%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON