tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4599 at 13:16, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4599 Southwest DEN 13:16 ECP 17:19 20% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 7h 09m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 7h 57m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 6h 03m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:05 → ECP 21:11AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 7h 32m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 5h 38m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720 3h 15m Houston IAH 14:30 → ECP 16:23UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 41m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 2h 56m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:01UA 4043 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 2h 57m Houston IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 28m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 51m Houston IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 23m 73% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON