Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3993 at 10:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3993 DEN 10:31 → ELP 12:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2261 DEN 16:44 → ELP 18:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3993 Southwest	DEN 10:31	ELP 12:31	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2128 United	DEN 11:26	ELP 13:29	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:44	ELP 18:49	22%	7%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON