Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3995 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3995 Southwest	DEN 08:36	EUG 10:19	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 318 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	EUG 12:57	16%	6%	0.6%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	7h 28m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:06AS 682	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	5h 43m	94%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON