Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2345 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2345 DEN 06:00 → EWR 11:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1505 DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:35 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2345 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	EWR 11:49	4%	1%	0.8%	96%
UA 1745 United Flight history →	DEN 00:02	EWR 06:04	7%	2%	0.9%	92%
UA 2640 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	EWR 13:27	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 2381 United Flight history →	DEN 10:12	EWR 16:16	22%	9%	0.7%	81%
UA 2613 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	EWR 23:44	24%	9%	0.7%	71%
UA 1233 United Flight history →	DEN 11:37	EWR 17:31	27%	11%	0.7%	77%
UA 1283 United Flight history →	DEN 12:40	EWR 18:35	28%	12%	0.7%	71%
UA 1715 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	EWR 21:29	34%	15%	0.7%	66%
UA 1505 United Flight history →	DEN 13:41	EWR 19:35	35%	11%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON