Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 05:56, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:56 → SEA 07:43DL 1731	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 46m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 12:05 → FAI 14:54AS 230	8h 14m	87%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON