Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1214 at 09:46 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1214 DEN 09:46 → FLL 15:46 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2281 DEN 17:16 → FLL 23:16 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1214 United	DEN 09:46	FLL 15:46	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1374 United Flight history →	DEN 16:04	FLL 22:07	16%	7%	0.7%	77%
UA 1384 United Flight history →	DEN 13:53	FLL 19:55	19%	8%	0.7%	67%
WN 2281 Southwest	DEN 17:16	FLL 23:16	25%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	47m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	5h 48m	83%	64%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → FLL 18:31AA 2798	5h 53m	75%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON