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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via LAX, leaving 10:02, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 384 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 HNL 15:13 33% 9% 0.8% 82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:02 → PDX 13:46AS 684 3h 54m Portland PDX 17:40 → HNL 20:36AS 840 12h 34m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 12h 04m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 43m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638 3h 44m Los Angeles LAX 13:16 → HNL 16:08UA 1224 12h 08m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:59 → SLC 09:26DL 1581 2h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 10h 20m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → DEN 11:37 → LAX 13:04AA 6376 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m Los Angeles LAX 14:55 → HNL 17:57AA 143 10h 20m 93% 70%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 1h 31m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158 9h 49m 99% 69%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 08:31 → OAK 10:03WN 1696 1h 21m Oakland OAK 11:24 → HNL 13:50WN 808 9h 19m 95% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 51m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 8h 57m 69% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON