Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1279 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1279 DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 421 DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1279 United Flight history →	DEN 06:13	IAD 11:41	5%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 1101 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	IAD 13:26	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 2087 United Flight history →	DEN 10:20	IAD 15:53	11%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 2853 United Flight history →	DEN 12:26	IAD 17:58	11%	5%	0.5%	82%
UA 347 United Flight history →	DEN 13:53	IAD 19:22	13%	5%	0.5%	87%
UA 2408 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	IAD 23:32	14%	6%	0.5%	71%
UA 421 United Flight history →	DEN 15:40	IAD 21:11	16%	6%	0.5%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480	46m Columbus	CMH 15:14 → IAD 16:41UA 1538	5h 06m	77%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON