Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 6020 DEN 07:45 → ICT 10:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1788 DEN 17:56 → ICT 20:38 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6020 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ICT 10:16	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 5497 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	ICT 12:27	10%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 5454 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:59	ICT 16:34	11%	5%	0.6%	85%
OO 4753 SkyWest	DEN 15:31	ICT 18:05	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2564 Southwest	DEN 11:36	ICT 14:07	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1788 United	DEN 17:56	ICT 20:38	18%	7%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON