Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1615 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1615 DEN 05:55 → IND 10:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1623 DEN 15:31 → IND 20:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1615 Southwest	DEN 05:55	IND 10:22	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1522 United Flight history →	DEN 09:58	IND 14:35	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 1622 Southwest	DEN 10:29	IND 14:56	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1228 United	DEN 13:30	IND 18:17	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 2346 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:38	IND 15:17	17%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 1199 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	IND 22:30	19%	7%	0.6%	76%
F9 2348 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:35	IND 20:08	25%	7%	0.6%	83%
WN 1623 Southwest	DEN 15:31	IND 20:00	26%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON