Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1451 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1451 DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 2153 DEN 13:46 → JAX 19:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1451 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	JAX 15:39	11%	4%	0.8%	85%
UA 1485 United Flight history →	DEN 16:07	JAX 21:40	16%	6%	0.8%	83%
WN 2153 Southwest	DEN 13:46	JAX 19:14	22%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON