Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 336 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 336 DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 1498 DEN 14:09 → JFK 20:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 336 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:35	JFK 12:27	4%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 532 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:10	JFK 18:25	14%	7%	0.7%	85%
B6 1498 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 14:09	JFK 20:11	23%	14%	1.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON