Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via LAX, leaving 06:04, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1758 United Flight history →	DEN 12:15	KOA 15:37	13%	5%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093	1h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 09:00 → KOA 11:42UA 2373	9h 38m	99%	90%
United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	1h 17m San Francisco	SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721	9h 25m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148	2h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311	10h 48m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:05AS 682	1h 54m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → KOA 19:05AS 238	10h 48m	95%	75%
American Details →	DEN 08:24 → PHX 09:32AA 1404	1h 08m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	9h 42m	88%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON