Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1627 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1627 DEN 07:27 → LAS 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1638 DEN 16:31 → LAS 17:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1627 Southwest	DEN 07:27	LAS 08:23	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1629 Southwest	DEN 08:28	LAS 09:24	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 2316 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	LAS 09:07	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 2353 Southwest	DEN 09:41	LAS 10:38	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 2349 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:24	LAS 08:28	11%	4%	0.8%	74%
UA 1767 United Flight history →	DEN 09:51	LAS 11:02	12%	5%	0.7%	89%
F9 1993 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:00	LAS 11:07	13%	6%	0.9%	81%
UA 526 United Flight history →	DEN 11:22	LAS 12:24	15%	7%	0.6%	83%
UA 493 United Flight history →	DEN 13:28	LAS 14:28	16%	8%	0.6%	88%
WN 389 Southwest	DEN 11:13	LAS 12:10	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 4967 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:47	LAS 13:47	19%	8%	0.9%	72%
UA 2424 United	DEN 16:13	LAS 17:28	19%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1637 Southwest	DEN 13:28	LAS 14:24	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 1765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:34	LAS 19:38	24%	10%	0.8%	77%
WN 1639 Southwest	DEN 17:26	LAS 18:22	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1638 Southwest	DEN 16:31	LAS 17:27	26%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON