Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1093 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1093 DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest OO 4948 DEN 18:37 → LAX 20:03 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1093 United Flight history →	DEN 06:04	LAX 07:34	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 8948 Delta	DEN 00:17	LAX 01:42	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2002 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:31	LAX 09:00	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 4785 Southwest	DEN 07:41	LAX 09:05	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1638 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	LAX 09:32	11%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:29	LAX 13:56	11%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 405 United Flight history →	DEN 10:02	LAX 11:34	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
WN 1644 Southwest	DEN 09:16	LAX 10:38	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 774 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	LAX 14:57	14%	6%	0.6%	91%
F9 2797 Frontier	DEN 09:03	LAX 10:34	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1013 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	LAX 13:17	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
F9 2341 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:07	LAX 14:37	15%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	DEN 15:43	LAX 17:15	16%	8%	0.6%	83%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:38	LAX 13:05	16%	5%	0.6%	93%
AA 6284 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:24	LAX 08:52	16%	4%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 685 Southwest	DEN 14:50	LAX 16:13	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1753 United	DEN 17:35	LAX 19:01	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1645 Southwest	DEN 13:46	LAX 15:09	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4948 SkyWest	DEN 18:37	LAX 20:03	21%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON