Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3463 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 3463 DEN 06:11 → LGA 11:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4495 DEN 15:01 → LGA 20:47 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3463 Southwest	DEN 06:11	LGA 11:56	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 398 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:35	LGA 13:19	13%	5%	1.0%	87%
UA 1442 United Flight history →	DEN 08:03	LGA 13:57	14%	4%	0.8%	89%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	LGA 15:46	19%	7%	0.7%	83%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	DEN 17:45	LGA 23:38	22%	8%	1.1%	70%
UA 2033 United Flight history →	DEN 17:35	LGA 23:30	24%	9%	0.6%	60%
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LGA 16:47	24%	8%	1.0%	80%
WN 2141 Southwest	DEN 09:06	LGA 14:51	25%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 1579 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	LGA 19:53	28%	11%	0.7%	71%
UA 2168 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LGA 21:54	29%	15%	0.7%	67%
UA 598 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	LGA 17:24	29%	11%	0.7%	72%
WN 1656 Southwest	DEN 11:21	LGA 17:06	39%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 1654 Southwest	DEN 17:06	LGA 22:52	40%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 4495 Southwest	DEN 15:01	LGA 20:47	41%	13%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON