Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1655 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1655 Southwest	DEN 08:49	LGB 10:11	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4483 Southwest	DEN 14:51	LGB 16:12	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13DL 2544	3h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	7h 19m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	DEN 08:31 → OAK 10:03WN 1696	49m Oakland	OAK 10:52 → LGB 12:22WN 2102	4h 51m	79%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317	56m Seattle	SEA 11:38 → LGB 14:12AS 717	6h 32m	66%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON