Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2307 United Flight history →	DEN 12:00	LIH 15:37	22%	5%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	1h 59m San Francisco	SFO 08:52 → LIH 11:52UA 1111	10h 37m	99%	85%
United Details →	DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093	1h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295	9h 40m	99%	82%
United Details →	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	3h 51m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	12h 21m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:17 → SEA 14:05AS 682	2h 51m Seattle	SEA 16:56 → LIH 20:23AS 237	12h 06m	98%	73%
American Details →	DEN 08:24 → PHX 09:32AA 1404	1h 17m Phoenix	PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697	10h 12m	91%	70%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148	49m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 12m	85%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317	46m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	10h 00m	37%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON