tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5333 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 10:05 MAF 12:59 14% 4% 0.6% 86%
OO 394 SkyWest DEN 13:51 MAF 16:48 15% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DEN 05:56 → DAL 08:58WN 1388 3h 20m Dallas DAL 12:18 → MAF 13:42WN 1394 6h 46m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320 1h 03m Houston IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa 5h 07m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720 3h 20m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 7h 33m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 6h 49m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 1h 26m Houston IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa 5h 41m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:29 → MAF 19:49AA 4279 · flown by Envoy 6h 10m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 2h 54m Houston IAH 22:04 → MAF 23:44UA 6276 · flown by Mesa 7h 09m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON