Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1659 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1659 DEN 05:05 → MCI 07:51 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3376 DEN 16:52 → MCI 19:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1659 Southwest	DEN 05:05	MCI 07:51	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1362 Southwest	DEN 08:16	MCI 11:02	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2512 Southwest	DEN 10:40	MCI 13:25	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2159 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	MCI 12:30	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
OO 4756 SkyWest	DEN 07:57	MCI 10:46	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2543 Southwest	DEN 12:25	MCI 15:11	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 586 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MCI 16:22	13%	4%	0.6%	88%
OO 4760 SkyWest	DEN 15:39	MCI 18:29	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 163 Southwest	DEN 14:42	MCI 17:27	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2793 United Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MCI 20:43	20%	8%	0.6%	56%
WN 2648 Southwest	DEN 16:22	MCI 19:09	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 3376 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:52	MCI 19:47	23%	8%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON